Jarrett Karnibad

At 9:57pm Eastern, I texted a friend of mine, who is a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays: “Well, it looks like one of us is going to get Kyle Tucker.” I, being a New York Mets fan, had been following the Kyle Tucker story closely, and had just finished listening to the Locked On Mets Podcast episode from a few hours earlier.¹ It seemed so clear. If Kyle Tucker wanted a longer-term deal, he would sign with the Toronto Blue Jays, whereas if he wanted more money upfront, and a chance to retest free agency in a few years, he would sign with the New York Mets. Quite naively, I truly did not consider that the Dodgers had a chance, despite their name being thrown in rumors, although not nearly as much as the Blue Jays and the Mets.

At 9:58pm Eastern, only one minute later, Jeff Passan reported that Kyle Tucker had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Now let’s get into the contract and the fallout:

First of all, this deal is massive: 4 years, $240 Million. There’s $30 million deferred, opt-outs after years 2 and 3, along with a $64 Million Signing Bonus. The high signing bonus is a way to get Kyle Tucker more money without it being subject to California taxes. Tucker lives in Florida, and thus the signing bonus will be taxed according to Florida’s tax rates, rather than California’s. With the deferrals factored in, it brings the present day value of the contract down to around $228 million, and the Average Annual Value to $57.1 million. This AAV of $57.1 million is $6 million more than Juan Soto’s, then record, $51 million AAV contract signed last year in 2024.

Compare this to the reported contract that the New York Mets offered: 4 years, $220 million, no deferrals, opt-outs after years 2 and 3, and a $75 Million Signing Bonus. When you factor in the higher signing bonus that the Mets offered Tucker, the two contracts become quite similar. This shows me that Kyle Tucker would rather be a Dodger than a Met. While that hurts, it’s not something that I, or Mets fans, have not heard before, even in this offseason. Edwin Diaz signed with the Dodgers on a short-term deal, which the Mets were willing to do for Diaz, and reportedly Diaz did not give the Mets an opportunity to match the Dodgers offer of 3 years, $69 million. The Mets offered 3 years, $66 million, but reportedly made it clear that they could go higher (Team Officials). With Tucker’s decision, I get the same feeling that I did with Diaz: that Tucker would rather be in Los Angeles than New York. That is a sentiment that I’m sure is shared by a majority of players. Who wouldn’t want to go make a ton of money, live in a sunny paradise, and play on the best team in baseball?

That brings me to the more important part of this post: the fallout. Unless you wear Dodger Blue, it’s likely you are not pleased about Tucker signing with the Dodgers. Understandably so, as they have won the past two World Series, and then in this offseason signed the 2025 NL Reliever of the Year and also the best free agent of the class in Kyle Tucker. Everyone is looking for someone to blame, so who should it be? Who should we, as baseball fans, point the finger at? The Dodgers? The players choosing to go there? Rob Manfred? Let us instead point the finger at the 29 other owners and franchises who have consistently fallen short when it comes to beating the Dodgers, both on and off the field.

We cannot blame the Dodgers for finding a way to be successful. The current phrase that Dodger Defenders are using is “working within the confines of the current system.” And it’s true! Every other owner can play by the exact same rules as the Dodgers. They may not have as much money as the Dodgers, but the rules are still the same. Teams that are in big markets such as the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Cubs have the resources to get the same type of deals done as the Dodgers. The Mets are no stranger to deferred deals, they are still paying Bobby Bonilla, who retired in 2001.² The deferred deals is truly the only thing the Dodgers do differently than other franchises, other than throw more money at free agents than others. Shohei Ohtani, quite possibly the poster-boy for deferred deals, signed a 10 year, $700 million dollar deal for 2024-2033. However, over the course of that deal, he will only make $20 million in cash. He is then owed $68 million per year for the next 10 years from 2034-2043 to pay out the other $680 million he is owed. That is why for the 2025 season, Shohei Ohtani earned less money than his teammates: Alex Vesia, Hyeseong Kim, and Miguel Rojas (World Series Savior). Ohtani was the 17th highest earning player on the Dodgers last year. So, can we blame the Dodgers for playing by the admittedly flawed rules? No.

Who’s next? Ah, the players. I touched on this earlier, so I’ll keep it short. Would you rather play in Sunny LA and make $57.1 million to play baseball on the best baseball team, or play somewhere else, make less, have a far smaller chance to win the World Series, and not be in Sunny Southern California? When put like that, it’s hard to blame the players.³

Finally, Rob Manfred. People that blame Manfred for allowing the Dodgers to continue to sign these players. However, we cannot blame Manfred. He has to adhere to the Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by both the players and the owners. Any major change to the structure of the MLB, such as a salary cap, as many are pushing for, would have to come via a new CBA, rather than through Manfred willing it into existence. The current CBA expires at the end of the 2026 season, and there is a very real possibility that the two sides do not agree to a deal before the start of the 2027 season. The 2022 season started a week late when the last CBA expired following the 2021 season.

What changes need to be made to stop the new Evil Empire of the Los Angeles Dodgers? Should changes be made at all, or is it on the other owners to put a greater focus into building a better team? Is a Salary Cap a real possibility? I will try to answer these questions and others about the current state of baseball in a future post.

1. Thank you Ryan Finkelstein for your dedication to New York Mets baseball and for posting podcasts daily! ↩︎
2. And they will keep paying Bonilla through 2035. Thanks Bernie Madoff! ↩︎
3. Quick shoutout to Tatsuya Imai who, when posted from his NPB team, said he would rather try to beat the Dodgers than join them. Much respect to Imai, and I wish him great success in Houston. ↩︎