Jarrett Karnibad

No, the problem is not that there are too few or too many Wide Receiver 1’s. The problem is that teams are over-valuing their star wide receivers, and it can set them back for years. I’ve thought this for a long time, but when watching Colin Cowherd this week, he put up a list of the 12 highest-paid wide receivers in Average Salary per Year. For the 2025-2026 season, those 12 highest-paid wide receivers had a combined 0 playoff wins. To take it a step further, only 4 of the 12 made the playoffs this season. George Pickens is looking for a big contract this offseason, but should the Cowboys give it to him? Or, should the Cowboys invest in their defense and offensive line instead of allocating even more Salary Cap space to their Wide Receiver room? He is just one example, but teams across the NFL continuously make the same mistake: spending big on wide receivers.

According to Spotrac, the Cincinnati Bengals were the highest spenders in the league on their wide receiver room at a $51.4 million cap hit.¹ The Bengals Wide Receiver Room accounts for just over 20% of their total spending. The Bengals are probably the best example of why spending big on wide receivers might not be the best idea. The Bengals were 31st in Total Yards Allowed per game, 32nd in Touchdowns Allowed, 32nd in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, and 30th in Points Allowed Per Game.² These are horrific statistics, and one could argue it is a direct result of not having the cap space to spend more money on the defense. The Bengals ranked 20th in Defensive Spending in 2025, but some of the teams that ranked lower, spent less on their defense because many of their best defensive players are still on their rookie contracts, such as the Eagles, Rams, Jaguars, and 49ers. All of these were strong defenses in 2025, despite low defensive spending. Unfortunately, the Bengals did not draft as well as those teams, and thus did not have the same production from players on their rookie contracts.

I now want to take a different approach on why spending big on a star wide receiver can be detrimental to a team’s future. When looking at the highest paid wide receiver for the teams that made the Super Bowl in the last 8 years, there is a clear and obvious trend:

The only teams to spend over 10% of their cap on their wide receiver rooms were the 2020 and 2019 Kansas City Chiefs, and they had a Hall of Fame Coach, Quarterback, and arguably Defensive Coordinator.³ Another thing I noticed when creating this table was how teams got better after shedding massive wide receiver contracts, or got worse after taking new ones on. For example, in 2024, the Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in WR Room Cap % at 15.70%. After releasing Tyler Lockett and trading DK Metcalf, the Seahawks brought their WR Room Cap % down to 6.50% on their way to winning the Super Bowl in the 2025-2026. That might be an oversimplification of their tremendous turn-around, but its actually a part of a fascinating trend. After winning the Super Bowl in the 2020-2021 season with the 6th lowest WR Room Cap %, the Tampa Bay Bucs decided to reward their veteran wide receivers. Over the next 5 years, the Bucs were never outside the top 6 in WR Room Spending, and they only have 2 playoff wins to show for it, despite being in one of the worst divisions in the NFL the past 5 years. Here’s another example, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021 with a WR Room Cap % of 7.60%. Over the next three years, the Rams spent big: over a 10% WR Room Cap % all three years, getting as high as 15.37% in 2024. Their reward? Missing the playoffs in 2022, losing in the Wild Card Round in 2023, and losing in the Divisional Round in 2024. In 2025, the Rams got under the magical 10% threshold, and went on a run in the playoffs, losing to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship.

The data is there, teams that spend over 10% on their wide receiver room have a tendency to underperform. There are great wide receivers all over the league that teams can get at a good value. Additionally, there is never a shortage of wide receivers in the draft. If I was an NFL General Manager, I would draft a wide receiver every season, and target veteran receivers who are good leaders in free agency. And I would definitely stay under 10% on wide receiver spending.

1. While Chase and Higgins combine for more than $51.4 million in Average Annual Value, their cap hit is actually much lower. For the purposes of this article, I will be looking at cap hit. ↩︎
2. https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2025-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats ↩︎
3. 2022 Kansas City Chiefs WR Room Cap % is listed as less than 5% because Spotrac was missing Juju Smith-Schuster’s 2022 contract. It had only 2 receivers listed, and the Cap % was 1.73%. When factoring in JuJu’s contract, the actual Cap % is likely to still be under 5%. ↩︎