Jarrett Karnibad

Sports Articles and Data Analysis

Recent Articles

  • Michael Jordan Makes History Again… This Time in NASCAR

    Yes, this is the same Michael Jordan that won six NBA Championships. What many may not know is that Michael Jordan co-owns the NASCAR team, 23XI (Twenty Three Eleven) with Denny Hamlin, a fantastic current racer for another team. Hamlin is a longtime veteran winning 60 races, although he has never won a championship. The two founded the team in 2020 signing Bubba Wallace to be its only driver starting in 2021. Wallace drives the #23 car, an homage to Jordan’s jersey number. In 2022, 23XI Racing added their second car to the Cup Series: the #45 car, another homage to Jordan’s other, less popular, jersey number that he wore with the Wizards at the end of his career. Kurt Busch and Ty Gibbs both drove the #45 car, before finally bringing in Tyler Reddick for the 2023 season and beyond. And that, is where this story begins.

    Arguably, there is no bigger race in motorsport than the Daytona 500, with respect to the Monaco Grand Prix, Indianapolis 500, and 24 Hours of Le Mans. It is certainly NASCAR’s biggest race of the season, and it is the first race on the calendar. Reddick began the race in 26th position, and finished Stage 1 in 20th place. The end of this race was chaos, but Reddick somehow found his way into the lead and converted for his, and Michael Jordan’s, first Daytona 500 victory. Reddick lead only 1 lap… the last lap.

    The following week at EchoPark Speedway in Atlanta, GA, Reddick was looking to join a small list of only 5 other drivers that have won the first two races of the season. Reddick started far better than he did at Daytona, starting on pole position. He finished in the top 6 in both stages. This race was a trainwreck. Over half of the field was involved in a wreck at some point throughout this race. But in the first overtime, it was Bubba Wallace in 1st, Carson “Hurricane” Hocevar in 2nd, and Tyler Reddick behind Bubba in 3rd. Reddick was pushing Bubba and the two looked to be working well together when all of the sudden Bubba goes high to block Hocevar. Not only did this not work, as Hocevar slid under him to the middle, but it gave Reddick free air on the bottom to gain the lead of the race. A lead that Reddick would not relinquish, as he won back-to-back races to start the season.

    Next up, Circuit of the Americas. Typically a Formula 1 track, Circuit of the Americas (COTA) is a road course. And in today’s NASCAR, that means that Shane Van Gisbergen is the favorite. Going into this race, SVG had won the last 5 road courses, and was looking to tie Jeff Gordon for longest road course win streak in NASCAR history. But there was also another driver looking to make history at COTA: Tyler Reddick. No driver had ever won the first three races of the season in NASCAR history. It appeared unlikely, although Reddick does have a previous victory at this track. Going into qualifying, Van Gisbergen was +120 to win the race, while Reddick was +1600. Even after qualifying, and Reddick took a second straight pole, SVG was still +120 despite qualifying in 13th, though Reddick was up to +400. It was looking more and more likely that one of the two drivers would make history. It was a fun race, filled with lots of Green Flag pit stops and passes, but a caution came out with 19 laps to go. Reddick was in the lead, but SVG was not far behind. It felt like SVG was just taking his time before picking the right spot to make the pass for the lead. About 10 laps after the restart and 10 laps before the finish, SVG had closed in significantly, and was less than a half second behind Reddick, but that proved to be as close as he would get. Reddick just flipped a switch and started to pull away. When the White Flag came out, Reddick was four seconds ahead of Van Gisbergen. Michael Jordan had made his way down to pit lane, and was ready to celebrate with his team. When Reddick crossed the finish line, he became the first driver to win the first three races of the season in NASCAR history, and Michael Jordan was the owner of the first car to win the first three races of the season in NASCAR history.

    Even two and half decades removed from his dominance on the court, Jordan has now brought his dominance to the track. Jordan’s first three-peat took place from 1992-1994, and his second took place from 1996-1998. This three race run by Tyler Reddick has brought Jordan one more three-peat, albeit as a team owner. Reddick now has a commanding 70 point lead in the standings after only three races. It is very possible that he can bring Jordan and 23XI Racing their first Championship. Well, I guess it would be Jordan’s 7th total Championship.

  • A True Golden Goal for the United States

    A True Golden Goal for the United States

    I was not planning on writing an article today. But after watching the Men’s Hockey Gold Medal Game in Milan, there was no way I couldn’t write down my thoughts and emotions. Fair warning, lots of superlatives ahead.

    I will start off by saying that this was the greatest hockey game I have ever seen. Now I will be the first to admit, I do not watch a ton of hockey. I watch occasionally in the regular season, and a good bit in the playoffs. With that being said, I have never seen a game with such speed, physicality, and most of all, emotion. It was clear from the opening puck drop how much this game meant to each team. The game began with a furious blitz by the Americans before the first line change. Canada thwarted the initial attack until 6 minutes in, Matt Boldy made a spectacular play splitting two Canadien defenders while flipping the puck off of the ice to himself, before beating Jordan Binnington to put the Americans on the scoreboard. After that, however, it was all Canada for essentially the next 50 minutes. The ice appeared to be tilted towards towards the American net, but Connor Hellebuyck was fantastic, only allowing one goal, despite a barrage of shots on goal. That lone goal coming on a Cale Makar shot with less than two minutes to go in the 2nd Period.

    The turning point of the game came with around 7 minutes left in the 3rd Period. Quinn Hughes weaved through the Canadien defense and fired a shot on net, but Binnington turned it away. It was the first real scoring opportunity for the Red, White, and Blue in a long time. It led to a Sam Bennett high sticking penalty on future American hero Jack Hughes. The 4-minute double minor penalty gave the USA team an unbelievable opportunity to score before regulation ended, although it would cost Hughes parts of two of his teeth. He left the game briefly before returning with around a minute left in the power play. Hughes would then give a high stick of his own to Bo Horvat, leading to 4-on-4 hockey for 49 seconds, before giving Canada a 5-on-4 power play for over a minute. Hellebuyck and the American defense were gritty and were able to kill the power play and essentially ice the clock to end regulation.

    After regulation, so much was going through my head. Visions of 2010 came to mind, when Sidney Crosby scored the game-winner in the Gold Medal Game, mere seconds after I foolishly asked, “Why does everyone say Sidney Crosby is so good if he never scores?” I thought of the Miracle on Ice, 46 years ago, to the day. And finally, thanks to the broadcast, I relived Quinn Hughes waving off the bench and scoring the game-winner to defeat Sweden in the Quarterfinals only days ago.

    When it comes to 3-on-3 hockey, the game could be over at any moment. I, along with everyone else watching I’m sure, was on the edge of my seat. There might not be a better goal-scoring combination of 2 attackers and 1 defender in the world than the Canadiens’ 1st Line: Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Cale Makar. The two teams traded shots, and possession over the 1st minute, and time seemed to slow down. Both teams had great scoring opportunities only to turned away. But then, as Hellebuyck turned away a Connor McDavid shot, Jack Hughes took the puck, passed to Zach Werenski, who gave it back to Hughes, and Hughes sent it up the ice. Werenski gained control, spotted a trailing Jack Hughes, sent him the puck, and Hughes beat Binnington and found the back of the net. And just like that, the celebration was on. Less than two minutes into Overtime, Jack Hughes had scored the Golden Goal and etched his name into United States Men’s Hockey History.

    The celebration was a beautiful sight to see. Gloves, sticks, and helmets thrown into the air and an army of white and blue jerseys stormed the ice. As the initial celebration began to wind down, we got to witness some really special moments.

    • Connor Hellebuyck and Jack Hughes, the two brightest stars of the game, hugging and sharing a moment of true joy.
    • Zach Werenski, Auston Matthews, and Matthew Tkachuk retrieved the jersey of Johnny Gaudreau, a member of the Men’s USA Hockey Team who tragically died after being struck by a drunk driver in 2024. They then skated around the ice holding his jersey high, as if giving Johnny his own Olympic Gold moment.
    • The Jack Hughes Interview. I truly have no words about this interview. It was perfect from start to finish. The bloodied mouth and broken teeth. The American pride. The humility and love for his teammates. Please, just take the time to go watch the interview.
    • Finally, Werenski and Dylan Larkin went to the stands and brought out Gaudreau’s two children to join them in the team on-ice picture with their gold medals.

    These were just a few of my favorites from the postgame festivities. This game felt different from start to finish, and this group of players was truly special. Not only did they bring home the first Gold Medal in Men’s Olympic Hockey in 46 years, but they did so beating Canada. The very team that had defeated them in the 2010 Olympic Final, and in 2025’s Four Nations event. To say this Canadian team was stacked, is an understatement. And yet, it was the United States who prevailed. The grit, toughness, and passion that this team played with, will never be forgotten.

    1960, 1980, and now 2026. Congratulations to the US Hockey Men’s National Team.

  • The NFL has a WR1 Problem

    No, the problem is not that there are too few or too many Wide Receiver 1’s. The problem is that teams are over-valuing their star wide receivers, and it can set them back for years. I’ve thought this for a long time, but when watching Colin Cowherd this week, he put up a list of the 12 highest-paid wide receivers in Average Salary per Year. For the 2025-2026 season, those 12 highest-paid wide receivers had a combined 0 playoff wins. To take it a step further, only 4 of the 12 made the playoffs this season. George Pickens is looking for a big contract this offseason, but should the Cowboys give it to him? Or, should the Cowboys invest in their defense and offensive line instead of allocating even more Salary Cap space to their Wide Receiver room? He is just one example, but teams across the NFL continuously make the same mistake: spending big on wide receivers.

    According to Spotrac, the Cincinnati Bengals were the highest spenders in the league on their wide receiver room at a $51.4 million cap hit.1 The Bengals Wide Receiver Room accounts for just over 20% of their total spending. The Bengals are probably the best example of why spending big on wide receivers might not be the best idea. The Bengals were 31st in Total Yards Allowed per game, 32nd in Touchdowns Allowed, 32nd in Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game, and 30th in Points Allowed Per Game.2 These are horrific statistics, and one could argue it is a direct result of not having the cap space to spend more money on the defense. The Bengals ranked 20th in Defensive Spending in 2025, but some of the teams that ranked lower, spent less on their defense because many of their best defensive players are still on their rookie contracts, such as the Eagles, Rams, Jaguars, and 49ers. All of these were strong defenses in 2025, despite low defensive spending. Unfortunately, the Bengals did not draft as well as those teams, and thus did not have the same production from players on their rookie contracts.

    I now want to take a different approach on why spending big on a star wide receiver can be detrimental to a team’s future. When looking at the highest paid wide receiver for the teams that made the Super Bowl in the last 8 years, there is a clear and obvious trend:

    The only teams to spend over 10% of their cap on their wide receiver rooms were the 2020 and 2019 Kansas City Chiefs, and they had a Hall of Fame Coach, Quarterback, and arguably Defensive Coordinator.3 Another thing I noticed when creating this table was how teams got better after shedding massive wide receiver contracts, or got worse after taking new ones on. For example, in 2024, the Seattle Seahawks led the NFL in WR Room Cap % at 15.70%. After releasing Tyler Lockett and trading DK Metcalf, the Seahawks brought their WR Room Cap % down to 6.50% on their way to winning the Super Bowl in the 2025-2026. That might be an oversimplification of their tremendous turn-around, but its actually a part of a fascinating trend. After winning the Super Bowl in the 2020-2021 season with the 6th lowest WR Room Cap %, the Tampa Bay Bucs decided to reward their veteran wide receivers. Over the next 5 years, the Bucs were never outside the top 6 in WR Room Spending, and they only have 2 playoff wins to show for it, despite being in one of the worst divisions in the NFL the past 5 years. Here’s another example, the Los Angeles Rams won the Super Bowl in 2021 with a WR Room Cap % of 7.60%. Over the next three years, the Rams spent big: over a 10% WR Room Cap % all three years, getting as high as 15.37% in 2024. Their reward? Missing the playoffs in 2022, losing in the Wild Card Round in 2023, and losing in the Divisional Round in 2024. In 2025, the Rams got under the magical 10% threshold, and went on a run in the playoffs, losing to the Seahawks in the NFC Championship.

    The data is there, teams that spend over 10% on their wide receiver room have a tendency to underperform. There are great wide receivers all over the league that teams can get at a good value. Additionally, there is never a shortage of wide receivers in the draft. If I was an NFL General Manager, I would draft a wide receiver every season, and target veteran receivers who are good leaders in free agency. And I would definitely stay under 10% on wide receiver spending.

    1. While Chase and Higgins combine for more than $51.4 million in Average Annual Value, their cap hit is actually much lower. For the purposes of this article, I will be looking at cap hit. ↩︎
    2. https://www.foxsports.com/articles/nfl/2025-nfl-defense-rankings-team-pass-and-rush-stats ↩︎
    3. 2022 Kansas City Chiefs WR Room Cap % is listed as less than 5% because Spotrac was missing Juju Smith-Schuster’s 2022 contract. It had only 2 receivers listed, and the Cap % was 1.73%. When factoring in JuJu’s contract, the actual Cap % is likely to still be under 5%. ↩︎

  • Let’s Talk About Luis Arraez

    Thirty years ago, a player with a career batting average of .317, with an average of over 600 at bats a season, would have been considered one of the top players in the sport. And yet in today’s era, that same player is continuously overlooked and possibly under-valued. Luis Arraez just signed a one-year deal with the San Francisco Giants for $12 million. That ranks him 8th among 2nd Basemen in Average Annual Value. If we were to consider Arraez as a 1st baseman (the position he has played the most over the last two seasons), he would rank tied for 14th in AAV. Why is a career .300+ hitter not getting paid like one? The simple answer is that Arraez does not do much else besides getting base hits. He’s a below-average defender, he’s slow, and he does not hit the ball hard.

    Let’s start with Arraez’s defense. When he broke into the league in 2019 with the Minnesota Twins, he played mostly 2nd Base, but he was used as a Utility player, also playing games at 3rd Base and Left Field. This continued until 2022, where he was a primary 1st Baseman, but was still utilized in both the infield and outfield. In 2023, he was traded to the Marlins where he played almost exclusively 2nd Base during his year and a half with the team. A little over a month into the 2024 season, he was traded to the San Diego Padres, where he has played 1st Base primarily with a few games at 2nd Base sprinkled in here and there. Many expect Arraez to play 2nd Base for the Giants. So even though Arraez can play multiple positions, and has done so throughout his career, he has never really excelled at any of them. His range is poor, ranking in the bottom 15th percentile in Outs Above Average in every single year of his career.1 Additionally, since his career began in 2019, his Fielding Run Value, a statistic that measures how many runs above or below average a player is, is 4th worst in the MLB, only behind Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Andrew Benintendi. Despite his ability to play multiple positions, he is a defensive liability. As a 2nd Baseman, he would be tied for last with Jonathan India, and as a 1st Baseman, he would be the 8th worst. These are really bad defensive metrics that should only continue to decline with age.

    Now onto his speed and baserunning (in)ability. After his rookie season, in which he ranked in the 52nd Percentile in sprint speed, Arraez has never gotten back above average, and the last three years in particular have all been in the bottom 30th percentile in Major League Baseball. While he does rank slightly above average in his career on taking extra bases when the ball is in play, he is ranked dead last since 2019 in Baserunning Run Value only using stolen base opportunities. And again, these baserunning and sprint speed metrics are expected to decline as Arraez continues to get older.

    Finally, let’s get into Arraez’s bat: his supposed specialty. It is true that he gets a ton of base hits. However, the ball is rarely barreled. Arraez’s hard hit rate has never been above the 8th percentile in the league, and his barrel rate has never been higher than the 11th percentile. His bat speed has been the slowest in the Major Leagues all three years that bat speed has been measured (2023-2025). Yet, Arraez continues to get hits. He is a 3 time batting champ, winning it three straight years with three different teams. He does not whiff at pitches, and he does not strikeout, never being lower than the 99th percentile in either of those statistics. His expected on-base percentage had been in the top 20th percentile every year of his career until 2025 when it fell to 53rd percentile (still above-average).

    So then, let’s get into how valuable is Luis Arraez really? His Baseball Savant page is full of bright reds and blues, signifying the sharp contrast between his strengths and weaknesses. As a hitter, he has provided above average Hitting Run Value for the majority of his career (only negative values in 2021 and 2025). As a fielder, he is a liability, no matter where he plays. And finally, as a baserunner, his Baserunning Value is so low because he steals so few bases despite having the 9th most opportunities in the league since 2019. I would argue that Arraez can still be a valuable piece to many MLB teams. Despite the obvious differences in their hitting style, I would compare Luis Arraez to Kyle Schwarber. Both are below average defenders and runners, despite being excellent hitters, in their own ways. Yet, Schwarber signed a 5-year, $150 million deal this offseason, and Arraez signed a 1-year, $12 million deal, despite Schwarber being 4 years older. Granted, Arraez cannot hit for power the same way that Schwarber can, but when comapring the two players’ last four seasons, the stats are similar:2

    Arraez: .318/.359/.417 , 30 HR , 225 RBI , 115 OPS+ , 10.8 WAR

    Schwarber: .226/.349/.507 , 187 HR , 434 RBI , 134 OPS+ , 11.1 WAR

    Yes, Schwarber obviously hits for power far better than Arraez, but despite having over 150 more home runs, and over 200 more RBI’s, their Wins Above Replacement are essentially equal. Schwarber is making $38 million more than Arraez for the 2026 season, and yet they have both averaged around 2.7 WAR per season. In my opinion, the Giants are getting a lot more value for their money with Arraez than the Phillies are with Schwarber for 2026. But hopefully the Giants will follow the Phillies lead, and simply make Arraez the DH. They will be a better baseball team because of it.

    1. Baseball Savant: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/luis-arraez-650333?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb ↩︎
    2. Baseball Reference: https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/baseball/versus-finder.fcgi?request=1&seasons_type=perchoice&player_id1=arraez000lui&p1yrfrom=2022&p1yrto=2025&player_id2=schwar001kyl&p2yrfrom=2022&p2yrto=2025 ↩︎

  • Kyle Tucker and the Big Bad Dodgers

    At 9:57pm Eastern, I texted a friend of mine, who is a fan of the Toronto Blue Jays: “Well, it looks like one of us is going to get Kyle Tucker.” I, being a New York Mets fan, had been following the Kyle Tucker story closely, and had just finished listening to the Locked On Mets Podcast episode from a few hours earlier.1 It seemed so clear. If Kyle Tucker wanted a longer-term deal, he would sign with the Toronto Blue Jays, whereas if he wanted more money upfront, and a chance to retest free agency in a few years, he would sign with the New York Mets. Quite naively, I truly did not consider that the Dodgers had a chance, despite their name being thrown in rumors, although not nearly as much as the Blue Jays and the Mets.

    At 9:58pm Eastern, only one minute later, Jeff Passan reported that Kyle Tucker had signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

    Now let’s get into the contract and the fallout:

    First of all, this deal is massive: 4 years, $240 Million. There’s $30 million deferred, opt-outs after years 2 and 3, along with a $64 Million Signing Bonus. The high signing bonus is a way to get Kyle Tucker more money without it being subject to California taxes. Tucker lives in Florida, and thus the signing bonus will be taxed according to Florida’s tax rates, rather than California’s. With the deferrals factored in, it brings the present day value of the contract down to around $228 million, and the Average Annual Value to $57.1 million. This AAV of $57.1 million is $6 million more than Juan Soto’s, then record, $51 million AAV contract signed last year in 2024.

    Compare this to the reported contract that the New York Mets offered: 4 years, $220 million, no deferrals, opt-outs after years 2 and 3, and a $75 Million Signing Bonus. When you factor in the higher signing bonus that the Mets offered Tucker, the two contracts become quite similar. This shows me that Kyle Tucker would rather be a Dodger than a Met. While that hurts, it’s not something that I, or Mets fans, have not heard before, even in this offseason. Edwin Diaz signed with the Dodgers on a short-term deal, which the Mets were willing to do for Diaz, and reportedly Diaz did not give the Mets an opportunity to match the Dodgers offer of 3 years, $69 million. The Mets offered 3 years, $66 million, but reportedly made it clear that they could go higher (Team Officials). With Tucker’s decision, I get the same feeling that I did with Diaz: that Tucker would rather be in Los Angeles than New York. That is a sentiment that I’m sure is shared by a majority of players. Who wouldn’t want to go make a ton of money, live in a sunny paradise, and play on the best team in baseball?

    That brings me to the more important part of this post: the fallout. Unless you wear Dodger Blue, it’s likely you are not pleased about Tucker signing with the Dodgers. Understandably so, as they have won the past two World Series, and then in this offseason signed the 2025 NL Reliever of the Year and also the best free agent of the class in Kyle Tucker. Everyone is looking for someone to blame, so who should it be? Who should we, as baseball fans, point the finger at? The Dodgers? The players choosing to go there? Rob Manfred? Let us instead point the finger at the 29 other owners and franchises who have consistently fallen short when it comes to beating the Dodgers, both on and off the field.

    We cannot blame the Dodgers for finding a way to be successful. The current phrase that Dodger Defenders are using is “working within the confines of the current system.” And it’s true! Every other owner can play by the exact same rules as the Dodgers. They may not have as much money as the Dodgers, but the rules are still the same. Teams that are in big markets such as the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Blue Jays, and Cubs have the resources to get the same type of deals done as the Dodgers. The Mets are no stranger to deferred deals, they are still paying Bobby Bonilla, who retired in 2001.2 The deferred deals is truly the only thing the Dodgers do differently than other franchises, other than throw more money at free agents than others. Shohei Ohtani, quite possibly the poster-boy for deferred deals, signed a 10 year, $700 million dollar deal for 2024-2033. However, over the course of that deal, he will only make $20 million in cash. He is then owed $68 million per year for the next 10 years from 2034-2043 to pay out the other $680 million he is owed. That is why for the 2025 season, Shohei Ohtani earned less money than his teammates: Alex Vesia, Hyeseong Kim, and Miguel Rojas (World Series Savior). Ohtani was the 17th highest earning player on the Dodgers last year. So, can we blame the Dodgers for playing by the admittedly flawed rules? No.

    Who’s next? Ah, the players. I touched on this earlier, so I’ll keep it short. Would you rather play in Sunny LA and make $57.1 million to play baseball on the best baseball team, or play somewhere else, make less, have a far smaller chance to win the World Series, and not be in Sunny Southern California? When put like that, it’s hard to blame the players.3

    Finally, Rob Manfred. People that blame Manfred for allowing the Dodgers to continue to sign these players. However, we cannot blame Manfred. He has to adhere to the Collective Bargaining Agreement signed by both the players and the owners. Any major change to the structure of the MLB, such as a salary cap, as many are pushing for, would have to come via a new CBA, rather than through Manfred willing it into existence. The current CBA expires at the end of the 2026 season, and there is a very real possibility that the two sides do not agree to a deal before the start of the 2027 season. The 2022 season started a week late when the last CBA expired following the 2021 season.

    What changes need to be made to stop the new Evil Empire of the Los Angeles Dodgers? Should changes be made at all, or is it on the other owners to put a greater focus into building a better team? Is a Salary Cap a real possibility? I will try to answer these questions and others about the current state of baseball in a future post.

    1. Thank you Ryan Finkelstein for your dedication to New York Mets baseball and for posting podcasts daily! ↩︎
    2. And they will keep paying Bonilla through 2035. Thanks Bernie Madoff! ↩︎
    3. Quick shoutout to Tatsuya Imai who, when posted from his NPB team, said he would rather try to beat the Dodgers than join them. Much respect to Imai, and I wish him great success in Houston. ↩︎

  • What is best for the College Football Playoff?

    What is best for the College Football Playoff?

    It seems that no matter what the format is for the end of the season is in college football, people are upset. Notre Dame is just the latest of many to complain that “the system is unfair.” Now, I’ll be the first to say that this current system has its flaws. I was quick to say that the previous system had its flaws cough 2023 Florida State cough. And, even though both iterations of the playoffs have had issues, I have been clamoring for a playoff in college football since I was in Elementary School. So, what is the right way to do it? Is there a way to be objective about this process? Should non-power conference teams be included? How many teams should make the playoffs? These are just a few of the questions that I’m going to try to answer in what I think is the easiest, possible solution that does not require a complete overhaul of the college football landscape.

    Let’s start with the process: is the Selection Committee the best and most objective way to select playoff teams. I simply say no, it is not. Was the BCS system perfect? Maybe not, but it was two things that the committee is not: objective and transparent. While I might personally lean towards the pre-2004 version of the BCS with more math and advanced formulas, the final version from 2013 would work just fine. As a refresher, the 2013 BCS Rankings were compiled by combining the Harris Interactive Poll (the AP Poll replacement), the Coaches Poll, and the combination of 6 computer rankings. Each of the three aspects listed above were weighted equally. Here’s my proposal: Call them the CFP+ Rankings. Keep the committee, and let their rankings be one third of the final rankings. The committee’s only job should be to rank the teams based on their performance on the field. The second part of the rankings should remain as the Coaches Poll. Finally, the last part should be computer rankings. I would love to see the same ones used in the BCS, in which case there would be six computer rankings, and each team’s highest and lowest ranking would be dropped, and the four remaining rankings would be averaged.

    Example Team: University of Georgia (2025)

    Committee Ranking: 3

    Coaches Poll Ranking: 2

    Computer Rankings: 2*, 3, 3, 4, 4, 6* (*dropped from the computer average)

    Committee Ranking (3) + Coaches Poll Ranking (2) + Computer Average ((3+3+4+4)/4)=(3.5)

    3 + 2 + 3.5 / 3 = 2.83333

    University of Georgia CFP+ Rating: 2.83333

    Moving onto non-power conference teams, should they be included, and if so, is that possibly taking a spot away from a power-conference team that might have more talent? I look to the example set by the BCS era. If a non-power conference team was ranked in the top 12 in the BCS Rankings, or was ranked in the top 16 and was ranked ahead of at least one power conference champion, they would automatically be awarded an At-Large spot in a BCS Bowl (Fiesta, Orange, Sugar, Rose). Why not bring this concept back? Using the ranking system laid out above, provide a playoff spot to any non-power conference team that is ranked in the top 18 using the CFP+ Rankings. In 2024, Boise State would have certainly received a playoff bid despite not being in a power-conference due to their Committee Ranking being 9 and their Coaches Poll Ranking being 8 at the end of the regular season. Here’s how the top two non-power conference teams in 2025 stacked up. Keep reading to see if one, or both, would have made the playoffs using my proposed format.

    Finally, how many teams should make the playoff, and should there be auto-bids based on conference championships? I believe that 12 teams might be including too many teams, but I acknowledge that they will never reduce the number of teams that qualify for the playoffs now that they made the jump from 4 to 12. If they will not reduce the number of teams, I recommend that the number of teams remain at 12. They should be awarded using the following criteria:

    1. The CFP+ ratings are used to create CFP+ Rankings, which are the final rankings to be used for playoff seeding and selection.
    2. There shall be auto-bids for the highest-ranked team in each power conference (does not have to be the conference champion). The current power conferences are ACC, Big 10, Big 12, and SEC.
    3. If the highest-ranked team in each power conference is not the conference champion, the conference champion will receive an auto-bid so long as they are ranked in the top 18 in the CFP+ Rankings.
    4. Non-power conference teams will receive an auto-bid if they are ranked in the top 18 of the CFP+ Rankings.
    5. The rest of the spots that are not taken by auto-bids listed above, will be filled using the CFP+ Rankings.

    To me, this feels like the most fair and objective way to select the playoff teams. Here’s what the rankings and playoff would look like in 2025:

    Tulane just narrowly squeaks into the playoffs by finishing ranked 18th, and knocking the 12th best team by CFP+, BYU, out of the playoffs. The main difference in the 2025 outcome between my proposed playoff system and what actually occurred is that Notre Dame not only made the playoffs, but they made the playoffs as the 9 seed. The Playoff Schedule would feature the following games:

    • 12. Tulane @ 5. Oregon (Winner plays 4. Texas Tech)
    • 11. Miami @ 6. Mississippi (Winner plays 3. Georgia
    • 10. Alabama @ 7. Texas A&M (Winner plays 2. Ohio State)
    • 9. Notre Dame @ 8. Oklahoma (Winner plays 1. Indiana)

    While my proposed system may not be perfect, I feel that it is objective, fair, and still highly entertaining. It balances the human element with the harshness of computers, and it only gives playoff spots to teams that earn it.