Opening Day is only a few days away and it only feels right that I post an MLB Season Preview where I make predictions about each team. Once published, this will remain untouched, so that we can look back at the end of the season to see how right (or wrong) I was.
I will go team by team and predict:
- whether they will go over or under their 2026 Win Projection
- their best hitter
- their best pitcher
- their breakout player
After doing all thirty teams, I will predict the playoffs all the way through the World Series. I will make one prediction right now, and say that following the World Series, there will be a lengthy lockout. I fear that this is the prediction that is most likely to come true. But alas, let us begin.
National League East
Atlanta Braves
Win Projection: 88.5 – I like the under here, only because it feels like it might be time to break up this Atlanta core. The pitching staff is extremely injured to start the season, and lots of Braves hitters are coming off of their worst seasons in the Majors. However, if Atlanta can get healthy, 90 wins does not seem like a stretch.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Ronald Acuña Jr and Chris Sale. Both of these players have dealt with injuries over the past couple of years, but then again, so has much of Atlanta’s roster. An honorable mention for Best Pitcher is Robert Suarez, the new “set-up man” in town. He had a great season with the Padres last year, and I predict Suarez will be the closer instead of Raisel Iglesias before the end of the season.
Breakout Player – Drake Baldwin. This one feels like a layup, as Baldwin is the reigning NL Rookie of the Year. But I truly expect Baldwin to continue on his upward trajectory towards one of the better hitting backstops in the Major Leagues.
Miami Marlins
Win Projection: 72.5 – This Marlins team was surprisingly competitive over the second half of the season. Unfortunately, they were so competitive that they took two out of three against my Mets on the final weekend of the season to keep them out of the playoffs. This year’s team feels like a strong regression candidate. Not to mention the Marlins traded away Edward Cabrera, one of their most talented starting pitchers. I like the under here.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Otto Lopez and Eury Perez. I really like both players here to have strong seasons. Lopez quietly went 15-15 (homers-stolen bases) last year, and Perez is a towering righty with a nasty arsenal. Perez is another year removed from his 2024 Tommy John surgery, and I think this is his year.
Breakout Player – Owen Caissie. The centerpiece of the Edward Cabrera trade, Caissie appears to be the Opening Day starting right fielder for the Marlins. He had a strong season in the Minors last year, blasting 22 home runs with a .286 batting average. This Marlins team is full of young players looking to breakout, but Caissie seems to be the best bet.
New York Mets
Win Projection: 90.5 – Now before I hear, “You’re going to say ‘over’ because this is your favorite team,” let me say that this New York Mets team is incredibly different to last year’s team. And for that, I am taking over. The 2025 Mets compete with the 2023 Mets for the biggest let-down in recent Mets history.1 After the magical run of 2024, the 2025 Mets were likely what the 2024 Mets should have been. But unlike a lot of GM’s in the league, and in this division in particular, David Stearns was not going to “run it back.” He traded away Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil, let Pete Alonso walk away, and was out-bid by the Dodgers for star closer: Edwin Diaz. But, Stearns was extremely active in Free Agency, bringing in Marcus Semien, on the Brandon Nimmo trade, Jorge Polanco, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Tobias Myers, Luis Robert Jr, and the two crown jewels of this offseason: Freddy Peralta and Bo Bichette. Now granted, the Mets have a lot of new faces, but this team is extremely talented, and what are the chances an extremely talented Mets team underachieves again? Don’t answer that.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Juan Soto and Nolan McLean. While Soto might be the obvious choice, both Lindor and Bichette are extremely talented hitters, and would be the best batter on a lot of teams in the league. When it comes to the best pitcher on the Mets, look no further than Nolan McLean. While I could have put him down for Breakout Player, I truly believe McLean is an all-star talent who should be the easy favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.
Breakout Player – Carson Benge is the name to know, but I’m going to follow my heart and choose Brett Baty. Benge (#2 NYM Prospect) is currently competing for the starting right fielder job, but even if he falls short of that, he will be in the Majors at some point this season. My choice for breakout player is Brett Baty. After the All Star Break last year, Baty was third in OPS behind Lindor and Soto, and he lead the team in Batting Average. With the arrival of Bo Bichette forcing Baty off of 3rd Base, Brett will serve as the Mets utilityman and play all over the field. He’s expected to get starts at 1st Base, 2nd Base, 3rd Base, Right Field, as well as Designated Hitter.
Philadelphia Phillies
Win Projection: 89.5 – This team is the definition of “run it back.” They brought back Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto to keep their inner core intact. They did however cut ties with Nick Castellanos, paying him $20 million to go play for the Padres, so that they could bring in Adolis Garcia. Once postseason star for the World Series-winning Rangers in 2023, Garcia struggled the last two seasons. Maybe a change of scenary will help him get back on track. I think the Phillies are going to go over this projection and get to 90 wins. They have proven it year after year, and while they didn’t do a ton this offseason, they certainly didn’t get that much worse.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Bryce Harper and Jhoan Duran. After a very interesting back-and-forth with Harper and the Phillies’ GM, in which Dombrowski said that Harper might not be an elite player anymore, I think Harper has a big year, trying to prove him wrong. Duran was an amazing pickup for the Phillies at the Trade Deadline last season, pitching to a 2.18 ERA and 16 saves in 23 games with the team. Even more amazingly, Duran had 27 strikeouts and only 1 walk in the Regular Season with the Phils.
Breakout Player – Justin Crawford. This 22 year old had quite a season last year in Triple-A. He hit .334 with a .411 OBP, and stole 46 bases. He doesn’t hit much for power, only 7 home runs and a .452 SLUG. But, this might be the type of player that can help bring the already strong Phillies’ offense to a new level. He has plus contact and speed, and has the inside track to be the starting Center Fielder on Opening Day.
Washington Nationals
Win Projection: 65.5 – This is the 2nd lowest win projection in the league, and the lowest in the National League. While this team has arguably no pitching staff after trading away Mackenzie Gore, I like them to go over this projection. They have an exciting young outfield with James Wood, Jacob Young, and Dylan Crews. This team won 66 games last year, I think they can win the same this year.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – James Wood and Foster Griffin. Let’s start with Wood. He hammered 31 homers last year and ranked in the top 5% in Average Exit Velo, Hard Hit %, and Bat Speed. He was also in the top 2% in xwOBAcon, which is Expected Weighted On Base Average on contact, which excludes walks, strikeouts, and hit-by-pitches. Now to the awful pitching staff, Cade Cavalli is listed as the Number 1 starter. That in and of itself isn’t a great start. I like Foster Griffin to be the best of the bunch. He’s coming back to the states after playing the past three seasons in the NPB, pitching to a 2.57 ERA with 9.01 strikeouts per 9 innings.
Breakout Player – Dylan Crews. Already a good defender and fast runner, I like Crews to take the next step with his bat this season. He has high bat speed, but has a tendency to miss his sweet spot and hit ground balls. If he can level his swing out a bit and get that ball off the ground, it might lead to a better slash line.
National League Central
Chicago Cubs
Win Projection: 88.5 – This is an interesting number for the Cubs. The team won 92 games last year, but lost Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers in Free Agency. They decided to replace him with Alex Bregman, who is very solid in his own right. I think this team is probably about as good as last year’s team, considering the addition of Edward Cabrera. I think the Cubs go over this projection.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Pete Crow-Armstrong and Cade Horton. These two young stars were both amazing last year, with PCA going 30-30 last year, and Cade Horton falling just short of winning the NL Rookie of the Year Award. Both Bregman and Nico Hoerner have a case for the Best Hitter for this team, but I think PCA is just more dynamic and explosive.
Breakout Player – Moisés Ballesteros. There’s not a lot of breakout candidates on this team, as most players are fairly established. FanGraphs projects Ballesteros to be the Left Hand Hitter of a Designated Hitter platoon with Matt Shaw, probably the only other breakout candidate on the Cubs. He’s a good hitter, and was a Top 100 Prospect going into 2025.
Cincinnati Reds
Win Projection: 81.5 – One year ago, the Reds snuck into the playoffs with 83 wins, usurping the spot the Mets had held onto for almost the entirety of the season. They drastically over-performed everyone’s expectations, and yet they have two of the most exciting players in the league (see below). I see a regression here for the Reds. Despite the signing of Eugenio Suarez, the Reds offense is still a level below that of a playoff team. I think the Reds go under .500 this year.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene. Both of these players are electric in their own ways. De La Cruz is one of the fastest players in the league and Greene regularly runs his fastball up to triple digits. I think Greene was a sneaky pick for the NL Cy Young this year, before his injury. He had a sub 3 ERA and sub 1 WHIP last season, with great advanced metrics.
Breakout Player – Chase Burns. After only pitching in 13 games last year, I like Burns to be the breakout player for the Reds this year. He has great fastball velocity, and shot through the Minors in 2025 before making his debut. He was a Top 30 prospect heading into the 2025 season, and I think with a full year in the Majors, he will have a great season.
Milwaukee Brewers
Win Projection: 84.5 – After winning 97 games and going into the playoffs as the 1-seed in the National League, this win projection feels a little disrespectful. With that said, the Brewers had a rough offseason. They traded away Freddy Peralta and two young rookies who finished 3rd and 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year race: Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins. They got two strong prospects back from the Mets in return for Peralta, but this Brewers team feels very depleted from a year ago. I think the Brewers go over this projection, albeit barely.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Jackson Chourio and Jacob Misiorowski. The Brewers are a team that’s known for a lot of good players and without an elite star, and that’s why it’s hard to pick the best of the bunch. I like Chourio to have the best season as a position player, although Brice Turang was exceptional last season. Jacob Misiorowski was a revelation last year in his rookie season; wowing everyone with his elite fastball velocity and sharp movement on his breaking balls. I like the Miz (not the WWE one) to take the next step this season to be an elite pitcher.
Breakout Player – Jett Williams. I’ve been following Jett’s career for some time as he navigated his way through the Mets Minor League system, and he is going to be a fun guy to watch play in the Majors this season. He’s fast and packs a lot of power into his short frame. Early reports are that Williams will have a chance to make an impact for the Brewers as early as May, especially if incumbent Joey Ortiz struggles to start the season.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Win Projection: 78.5 – It felt like no team appeared in more offseason rumors than the Pittsburgh Pirates. They were in on Kyle Schwarber and then on Eugenio Suarez, Paul Skenes trade rumors swirled for a few weeks. But it appears that the Pirates want to try to win now. They signed Marcel Ozuna and Ryan O’Hearn to try to bring some pop to the lineup. Unfortunately the team lacks depth in its starting lineup. The same is true for the Pirates’ bullpen. I think the Pirates show some life, but ultimately fall under this projection.
Best Hitter or Best Pitcher – Ryan O’Hearn and Paul Skenes. One of these is not like the other, and thus is the problem with the Pirates. Skenes is an elite pitcher coming off of a Cy Young season, and Ryan O’Hearn is a fine hitter, but in no way is he a star.
Breakout Player – It feels like cheating to say Konnor Griffin, but I’m going to anyway. He is a future star in this league, and the Pirates could sure use him sooner rather than later. Look no further than what he did in a February Spring Training Game.
St Louis Cardinals
Win Projection: 69.5 – This offseason for the Cardinals had a clear theme of clearing house and starting over. They traded away Sonny Gray, Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and lost Miles Mikolas to free agency. This team will be young and mostly inexperienced. Look for the Cardinals to be competitive next year, but not this under. Under 70 wins is my prediction.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Lars Nootbar and Matthew Liberatore. While Nootbar had trade rumors surrounding him all offseason, he remains with the team… for now. It’s still possible that he ends the season on a different team. Liberatore quietly had a moderately effective season last year, pitching 150 innings with 4.21 ERA. Frankly, there aren’t a lot of better options to choose from.
Breakout Player – JJ Wetherholt. This is another team where it feels like cheating to pick a top 15 prospect in baseball. It appears that JJ will break camp with the team, and some are even throwing out his name in NL Rookie of the Year conversations.
National League West
Arizona Diamondbacks
Win Projection: 79.5 – The Diamondbacks signed a couple of big name players this offseason. The only problem is that they are far removed from their best years. Nolan Arenado and Carlos Santana are the two position players that expect to be in the lineup. The D-Backs starting pitching rotation should be fairly solid with Gallen back. I expect him to have a better season than last year, and bringing back Merrill Kelly should help. I actually like the Diamondbacks to go over the win projection and reach 80 wins before falling short of the playoffs.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Geraldo Perdomo and Brandon Pfaadt. Perdomo had an amazing season last year, finishing in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting. Pfaadt dealt with some bad batted ball luck with his FIP a full point lower than his ERA. I expect Pfaadt to have a much more successful season this year.
Breakout Player – Jordan Lawlar. Once a highly-touted prospect at SS, Lawlar is now a Center Fielder. He had been marred by injuries the past two seasons, but I expect him to breakout after making the move to CF. He has a great arm, and he can hold down the bottom of this D-Backs lineup.
Colorado Rockies
Win Projection: 54.5 – This is simply not a good baseball team. This win projection would mean the Rockies lose 107.5 games this season. That’s being generous. I think the Rockies go under the projection and lose 110+ games this year.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Hunter Goodman and Victor Vodnik. A lone bright spot in an otherwise dull lineup. Hunter Goodman is a very good offensive catcher. He’s young, he hits for power (31 homers last season), and he is fairly durable (played in 144 games last year). Meanwhile, the Rockies pitching staff is very poor. I predict the Rockies pitching staff will flirt with the record for most home-runs allowed in a season in the National League (270, set by the Rockies in 2019). However, Vodnik is a solid reliever who, I believe, will be traded at the Deadline to a contender.
Breakout Player – Vodnik is my true pick to be the breakout player for the Rockies this year, but I’ll also choose Jordan Beck. He’s a young RF who hits for power in a hitter’s paradise at Coors Field. He could hit 20 homers this season.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win Projection: 103.5 – Wow. This projection is 13 games higher than the next best teams. And yet, is it high enough? The Dodgers spent this offseason infuriating fans across the country by filling any perceived holes with perennial all-stars. They signed Kyle Tucker and Edwin Diaz, and essentially lost no one to free agency. What most people forget about last year though, is that the Dodgers were the 3-seed in the National League going into the playoffs. While I definitely think the Dodgers are the best team in the league, I think 103.5 might be too high.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Shoehi Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As awesome as it would have been to just put one name there, I love Yamamoto too much. He’s a modern day pitcher with an old school mindset. He wants the ball in the biggest moments. Look no further than Game 7 of the World Series last season. Pitching the 10th and 11th innings after throwing 96 pitches and getting the win in Game 6 the day before. As for the best hitter, while there might be 5 or 6 guys that would be the best hitter on a lot of teams in the league, Shohei Ohtani is a class above the rest.
Breakout Player – Emmet Sheehan. This is an extremely veteran team, and thus there are not many options for a true “breakout player.” With that said, I like Sheehan to be the closest thing to one. He is set to open the year in the rotation after being used in a variety of ways in the last year.
San Diego Padres
Win Projection: 85.5 – The Padres had a bit of a rough offseason losing key players such as Dylan Cease and Robert Suarez. Also losing Luis Arraez will hurt the team’s batting average. More on Luis Arraez and his overall value/impact on the game here. However, they bring back Michael King and picked up Korean infielder Sung-Mun Song from the KBO. The thing I like about this team is they will be able to hit the ball. The pitching staff leaves a lot to be desired. I think this is one of the toughest teams to read going into this season, but I lean towards taking the over.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Fernando Tatis Jr and Mason Miller. These two are bona-fide All Stars, and could both compete for awards at the end of the season. Tatis Jr is coming off of his 2nd Platinum Glove award, and I think Miller will compete for NL Reliever of the Year.
Breakout Player – Jackson Merrill. While Merrill was a great player last year, I think this is the year he breaks into the “elite” player conversation. He’s played two seasons in the Majors and has compiled 8.3 fWAR. I predict Merrill will eclipse the 5.0 WAR mark for the second time in his young career this season.
San Francisco Giants
Win Projection: 80.5 – This team won 81 games last year, so this win projection is simply, will the team be as good as it was last year? I say yes. I like the Giants to go over 80.5 wins, and I think the Giants are a sneaky playoff contender this season. They brought in Luis Arraez, Harrison Bader, and a trio of pitchers. Both Arraez and Bader are upgrades over their last year’s starters.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Rafael Devers and Logan Webb. The Giants lineup is actually a lot better than I thought, and Devers has some competition for Best Hitter with Willy Adames and Matt Chapman. Logan Webb is far and away the best pitcher on a relatively weak staff.
Breakout Player – Bryce Eldridge. The Giants’ #1 prospect is set to break camp with the Giants this season. Despite playing poorly in 10 games at the end of last season with the team, I expect him to have a great rookie season. He’s only 21 years old, but he has been a highly touted prospect for years.
American League East
Baltimore Orioles
Win Projection: 85.5 – This feels like the easiest over in the league to me. The Orioles are only two years removed from their 100 win season, and the core of that team is still largely intact. Not to mention, they added the Polar Bear: Pete Alonso. This will be a very dangerous lineup, the rotation is improved after bringing in the veteran Chris Bassitt and trading for Shane Baz. 86 wins feels far too low of a projection. Easy over.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Gunnar Henderson and Trevor Rogers. I like Henderson to be the best position player for the O’s, but he has significant competition from Adley Rutschman, Pete Alonso, and Taylor Ward, who the O’s traded for this offseason. As for Rogers, he was dominant down the stretch last season, and had he pitched enough innings, he would have been the ERA leader by far. Although the projections for Rogers are low, I am very high on him.
Breakout Player – Dylan Beavers. There are actually a lot to choose from, as this Orioles roster is very young. There are only two position players on the active roster that have reached Free Agency (Alonso and Tyler O’Neil). Beavers should open this season as a platoon with O’Neil as the Right Fielder, but I would not be surprised if Beavers won the job early on. He hit 15 homers and stole 31 bases last season in Triple A.
Boston Red Sox
Win Projection: 87.5 – This was an interesting offseason for the Red Sox. It felt like they missed out on all the big names: Kyle Schwarber, Pete Alonso, and Alex Bregman. And yet, they were able to get creative and still put together a good offseason. They addressed the roation in particular, by signing Ranger Suarez to a big deal, and trading for Sonny Gray. The Red Sox also did not trade from their stash of young outfielders and pitching prospects. This is a young team that will be good this year, and many years to come. I predict the Red Sox win a World Series within 5 years, just maybe not this year. I think they go over 87.5 wins this year.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet. These two are studs. If you don’t know about Roman Anthony yet, learn the name. I think he’s an AL All Star for the foreseeable future. As for Crochet, he might have earned a Cy Young last season, had it not been for Tarik Skubal. I think he could push Skubal again, if not taking it for his first Cy Young.
Breakout Player – Caleb Durbin. The Red Sox traded for him this offseason, and he became the de-facto replacement for Alex Bregman. While he does not have the pedigree of Bregman, Durbin put together a fantastic rookie season with the Brewers. I think he will be a great value player for the Red Sox this season.
New York Yankees
Win Projection: 90.5 – Under. Similarly to how I felt the Orioles were an easy over, the Yankees feel like an easy under. They had an underwhelming offseason. They brought back Bellinger and Trent Grisham, but who did they actually bring in? The only brought in Ryan Weathers from the Marlins. While the other teams in this division all improved, the Yankees stayed put. They won 90 games last year, and I just do not think they can get to 91 this year with essentially the exact same roster.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Aaron Judge and Max Fried. There is not a better hitter on the planet than Aaron Judge. Moving on. While Gerritt Cole is definitely the better pitcher when healthy, it is unclear when he will return from Tommy John surgery, and if he will be the same when he does. So it was between Fried and David Bednar, who was pretty good last year down the stretch after being traded to New York. Both have good cases to be the best pitcher, but as a starter, Fried will have a greater impact.
Breakout Player – Will Warren. Chances are if there has been talk this offseason about a young Yankees starting pitcher, it was about Cam Schittler. He was definitely the talk of the Yankees postseason when he pitched an amazing Game 3 of the ALWC series to beat the Red Sox, throwing an 8-inning shutout with 12 strikeouts. Wait, this was supposed to be about Will Warren. I think Warren has a great season this year. He had a great fastball last season, with a run value of 11 on his 4-seam and a run value of 5 on his sinker. He also has great movement on his Sweeper, averaging 5.5 inches of break more than the league average.
Tampa Bay Rays
Win Projection: 77.5 – While this team may be competitive in other divisions, the AL East is simply too stacked. With 52 of 162 games being played against what I consider four playoff teams (Spoiler Alert), it will be too difficult for the Rays to reach 78. And for that reason, I like the under on the Rays 2026 season.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Junior Caminero and Shane McClanahan. There might not be a more electric player in the world than Junior Caminero playing for the Domican Republic. He’s no slouch while playing for the Rays either. He broke onto the scene last year with 45 homers, and I think he follows it up with another strong season. The Rays quietly have a lot of good arms this year. I also really like Ryan Pepiot and Griffin Jax to have impactful seasons.
Breakout Player – Chandler Simpson. I really liked him last year, and was very confused when he got sent down in the middle of the season. Last year, he was a very one-dimensional player: he could run. I expect his defense to improve this year to make it easier to keep him in the starting lineup. He has decent bat-to-ball skills shown by his low strikeout and whiff rate. If he can just square up the ball a bit more, he could have a great year.
Toronto Blue Jays
Win Projection: 88.5 – Losing Bo Bichette hurts. But, the Blue Jays did a great job in every other aspect of the offseason. Yes, Cease was signed to a big deal, probably far above market value, but the Jays got the best pitcher of the class and locked him up for 7 years. They replaced Bichette with Kazuma Okamoto, the Japanese 3rd Baseman. But the two moves I actually like the most are Cody Ponce and Tyler Rogers. More on Ponce in a bit, but Rogers has shown he can be a fantastic high-leverage reliever with a funky delivery that allows him to throw more innings than the average reliever. I think the Jays go over and reach at least 89 wins.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Vladimir Guerrero Jr and Dylan Cease. Both of these players are locked up for at least the next 7 seasons, and so you might as well get used to seeing these two names for the Blue Jays for the foreseeable future.
Breakout Player – Cody Ponce. He signed with the Blue Jays after playing in Korea internationally for the last 4 years. But something clicked last year in Korea. Ponce went 17-1 with a 1.89 ERA and 0.935 WHIP pitching over 180 innings. And the Blue Jays were able to sign him on a very reasonable contract: 3 years, $30 million. I think Ponce will have a fantastic season. He has looked great in Spring Training so far, pitching 6 innings over 3 games with a 1.50 ERA and 5 strikeouts.
American League East
Chicago White Sox
Win Projection: 67.5 – This is another team that feels like it is a year or two away from being competitive. I really liked the signing of the Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami, and similar to the Blue Jays’ signing of Cody Ponce from the KBO, the Sox were able to get him at a reasonable cost. They finally traded away Luis Robert Jr, but got back Luisangel Acuña, the younger brother of Ronald Acuña Jr. Unfortunately, this pitching staff is not good, and the lineup does not appear to be strong enough to hit its way through games. I think the Sox go under 67.5 wins.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Munetaka Murakami and Seranthony Dominguez. Murakami crushes the ball when he makes contact, unfortunately he does struggle with that at times. I still think he will be the best hitter on this otherwise subpar lineup. As for pitching, I could have probably chosen anyone on the roster. The fact is, this is the worst pitching staff in all of baseball. Dominguez will be the closer, though I don’t expect him to have lots of save opportunities.
Breakout Player – Colson Montgomery. He had a great debut last season, crushing 21 home runs in 71 games. FanGraphs expects him to have a big drop-off this year, but I am going to go the other way. I think he will continue to see success. Noah Schultz is another good breakout candidate, but its unclear when or if he will be called up to the Majors in 2026.
Cleveland Guardians
Win Projection: 79.5 – Talk about a team that did nothing this offseason. Their only two noteworthy signings were Rhys Hoskins and Shawn Armstrong. Now, the latter had a phenomenal year with the Rangers, but Rhys Hoskins isn’t someone that is going to solve the Guardians’ lineup. They finished last in American League last year in runs, and finished 29th in the Majors in all three slash line categories (Batting Average/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage). This might be my pick to have the biggest fall-off from last year. Easy under.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – José Ramírez and the Bullpen. Coming off of his second straight 30-30 season and down-ballot MVP votes, Ramírez was far and away the easy choice for the Best Hitter on the Guardians. While Cleveland’s starting pitchers are all solid, the bullpen is definitely the team’s strength. The unit finished in 3rd last season in Bullpen ERA, and they brought in Shawn Armstrong. Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis, and Shawn Armstrong (in no particular order) might the one of the best 7-8-9 combinations in all of baseball.
Breakout Player – Gavin Williams. While he had somewhat of a breakout last season, he’s a player that I think will take the next step to be a true ace for the Guardians. He’s got very good stuff, strong Fastball velocity and he keeps the ball on the ground (46.1 ground-ball rate). His curveball and sweeper are both strong pitches, and if he can figure out his 4-seam fastball (or get rid of it, opting to use his cutter and sinker instead), I think Williams has a phenomenal year.
Detroit Tigers
Win Projection: 85.5 – Over. I mean talk about a disrespectful line. The Tigers had one of the best offseasons in all of baseball. They brought in Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander (Welcome Home), Kenley Jansen. They re-signed Gleyber Torres and Kyle Finnegan. And on top of all that, they kept Tarik Skubal. The Tigers were oh so close to making the ALCS last season, losing in the 15th inning of a winner-take-all Game 5 in the ALDS. The Tigers won 87 games last year, and did so with a complete collapse in the last two months, essentially gifting the division to the Guardians. This might be the easiest one in the league.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Spencer Torkelson and Tarik Skubal. I shouldn’t even have to explain myself for selecting Skubal as the best pitcher on this team, but this is my pick for the best rotation in Major League Baseball. Skubal, Valdez, Jack Flaherty, Verlander, and Case Mize. That is an unbelievable unit. When it comes to the lineup, it is far more even. I like Torkelson the most, but Riley Greene and Gleyber Torres both could be better.
Breakout Player – Kevin McGonigle. The #1 prospect for the Tigers (#5 Overall) is set to take over at Shortstop this season, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t have a great season. He has been great in the Minor Leagues, the Fall League, and in Spring Training so far this season. He should challenge for American League Rookie of the Year.
Kansas City Royals
Win Projection: 82.5 – This team won 82 games last year, and definitely improved this offseason. They acquired Isaac Collins (LF) and Nick Mears (RP) from the Brewers and picked up some other good pieces in Matt Strahm and Lane Thomas. Outside of the Tigers, this feels like the worst division in baseball to me, and so I think the Royals are good enough to get to 83 wins getting to play 39 games against the Twins, Guardians, and White Sox. Over.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Bobby Witt Jr and Cole Ragans. Witt is undoubtedly a top 10 player in baseball, and he is still only 25 years old. I expect Witt to keep getting better. Ragans on the other hand, is coming off of an abbreviated season due to injuries. Don’t let his 4.67 ERA in 2025 fool you, he pitched to a 2.67 xERA, and set a Major League record for Strikeouts per 9 for Pitchers that pitched a minimum of 10 starts.
Breakout Player – Jac Caglione. This feels like an easy one. Jac hits for power, but deals with contact issues at times. He did not have a particularly strong debut season in the Majors last year, but it feels like he is as strong a candidate as anyone to break out this year. No matter what, I expect him to greatly improve on the -1.6 WAR he put up last year.
Minnesota Twins
Win Projection: 73.5 – At first glance, I was ready to proclaim this the worst roster in the American League. However, after doing a bit more research, it’s still not good, but it is definitely not the worst. This division is so bad that there’s a chance the Twins don’t win 70 games and still finish above the White Sox and the Guardians. This team’s strength is definitely the pitching staff, as it has 5 capable starts, as the lineup just feels lackluster. I’m going to take the under here, but there’s some pieces that might carry this team through some games.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan. These are two of the aforementioned pieces that can try to carry the team to some victories. Unfortunately for the Twins, if they are out of the playoff hunt come the Trade Deadline, both players’ names will be heavily involved in trade rumors as they were all of last year and all offseason.
Breakout Player – Zebby Matthews. He has struggled when he reached the Majors these past two seasons, but he has fairly good underlying metrics such as a strong Whiff %, K %, and BB %. His big issue has been when batters hit him, they are barreling at above an 11% clip. The MLB average is 7.2%. I think Matthews will have a much better year missing barrels and will factor into the rotation at some point this season.
American League West
Athletics
Win Projection: 75.5 – The team without a city, the Athletics have a strong lineup, and an awful pitching staff. The A’s pitching staff is led by Luis Severino, and while he’s fine, he is just not the ace of a playoff pitching staff. As I alluded to earlier, the lineup is young and exciting: only Jeff McNeil has accrued 6 years of service time in the Majors. Unfortunately for the A’s, they play in a tough division, but they have the reigning AL Rookie of the Year (see below), to lead them in shootouts all year long. Look for the A’s to be in the Top 10 in Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. I think the A’s go over 75.5 wins, and are one of the most exciting lineups to watch this season.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Nick Kurtz and Luis Severino. If you followed baseball last year, you should have heard about Nick Kurtz’s 6-6 with 4 home runs, 8 RBI’s, 6 Runs, and 19 Total Bases game as a rookie against the Astros last season. If you didn’t hear about it, then shame on whatever media company you use to get your sports news. That statline would be an unbelievable series or an unbelievable week for most players. Kurtz is electric. Severino is simply the best of the bunch, although the bar is low. He has good velocity and he limits barrels, but he does not get nearly enough swing and miss to be great.
Breakout Player – Denzel Clarke. Clarke reminds me of Dylan Crews from the Nationals. He’s already a strong fielder and runner, but needs to turn his high bat speed into more contact and more barrels. If Clarke’s bat can be anywhere near as good as his glove, then watch out for A’s this year.
Houston Astros
Win Projection: 86.5 – It wasn’t a great offseason for the Astros losing Framber Valdez and trading Mauricio Dubon. It also has not helped that the team has been hit by the injury bug to start the Spring. Both Josh Hader and Jeremy Peña appear to be heading towards missing Opening Day. There are positives however, the Astros signed Tatsuya Imai from Japan, and I expect him to have a strong season. He is efficient, and his Walks per 9 number decreased significantly in his last season in Japan. As for the team as a whole, yes, they are injured. And yes they have some aging stars: Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Christian Walker. But, this is still a good lineup and a good rotation. With all that being said, I think it’s back-to-back missed playoffs for the Astros. Under.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Yordan Alvarez and Hunter Brown. Both of these players are extremely talented. Alvarez has a unique blend of contact and power, and Hunter Brown is an overwhelming force on the mound. It’s just a matter of staying healthy and consistent. Alvarez played in less than 50 games last year, and Brown has battled spurts of poor control. Both players should be All Stars, and don’t be surprised if Hunter Brown puts together a Cy Young worthy season.
Breakout Player – Cam Smith. Here’s a guy who was just a slightly below average player in 2025, but he has all the makings of a potential 2 win WAR player. His strengths are his bat speed, his arm in the outfield, and his speed. If he can make more contact, look for him to be a solid everyday player in Right Field for the Astros.
Los Angeles Angels
Win Projection: 70.5 – I think this team is a little bit better than people will give it credit for. Although it has no chance to make the postseason, I believe the Angels go over the 70.5 win projection. The top half of their rotation is serviceable, headlined by José Soriano, and the lineup has some pop to it. Don’t look for this team to be particularly skilled at putting the ball in play, but when they do make contact, it could go a long way.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Zach Neto and Reid Detmers. While Mike Trout will forever be a legend on the field, the real star of this team moving forward is Zach Neto. The projection models love him this season, and it’s not hard to see why. He was a 25-25 player that has really good advanced metrics relating to his power. Detmers, by all accounts should have a good season. The advanced metrics in 2025 were very strong, especially revolving around his ability to miss bats: top 10th percentile in Chase%, Whiff%, and K%.
Breakout Player – Ryan Johnson. I can’t use Detmers here or else I would, but now that Johnson has earned a roster spot for Opening Day, I think he could have a good year. He is going to be in the conversation for the 5th Starter position, and he should win it. He pitched so well in A+ ball last season that he skipped AA and AAA and went straight to the Majors to finish the season in the bullpen. It wasn’t a particularly good debut for the 22 year old righty, but I think he could have a good season as a starter.
Seattle Mariners
Win Projection: 89.5 – Is it possible this team lost two key contributors and somehow improved this offseason? The answer is yes. Losing Jorge Polanco and Eugenio Suarez did not seem to impact the Mariners’ offseason plans whatsoever. They went out and traded for Brendan Donavan, a super-utility infielder, and brought in Rob Refsnyder to hit lefties. The only concern I have about this team is the bottom of the lineup definitely a bit lacking. But the strength of the pitching staff should help to balance it out. I think the Mariners go over the projection and reach at least 90 wins.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Julio Rodríguez and Bryan Woo. With respect to Cal Raleigh, there is just no way he can match what he did last season, and Julio is simply electric. Home run power, home run robberies, and blazing speed to match. I think Julio could reach 35-35 this year. As for who’s the best pitcher, I’m spoiled for choice, this is the only rotation in my opinion that can contend with the strength of the Tigers. I chose Woo, but Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo, and Bryce Miller (set to return within the first month) are all phenomenal as well.
Breakout Player – Colt Emerson. Similar to Brendan Donavan, he’s a guy that can play well at multiple positions. He played mostly Shortstop in 2025, and he had excellent stats across 3 levels. He mashed 16 home runs, stole 14 bases and had an .842 OPS across 130 games. While he won’t start the year with the team, he’s only 20 years old, I expect him to be a late season contributor.
Texas Rangers
Win Projection: 83.5 – What a weird offseason for 2023 World Series Champs. They moved on from their core by non-tendering Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim, essentially allowing them to become Free Agents early. They then traded Marcus Semien in a deal to acquire Brandon Nimmo. Also completed this offseason, the Rangers traded 5 minor-league players to acquire Mackenzie Gore from the Nationals. While those were the key moves, Shawn Armstrong also walked in Free Agency. This team is… different. I honestly do not know if its better. I’m going to say no, and predict this team goes under 83.5 wins.
Best Hitter and Best Pitcher – Wyatt Langford and Jacob DeGrom. I’ll always have a soft spot for DeGrom, but he was quietly dominant last year. He stayed healthy and pitched over 170 innings in 2025. As for Langford, team officials are loving what they have seen from him to start his career. He went 20-20 last year and missed 28 games. If he continues his upward trend, he could join the elite tier of players this year.
Breakout Player – Jack Leiter. Another quietly good player last season. Leiter had a Pitching Run Value of +7. Most of that was due to his Fastball (Run Value of +12). If Leiter can improve his breaking balls and offspeed pitches, look for Leiter to be one of the best 4th line starters in baseball this year.
Playoffs
Wild Card Series:
- NLWC: (3) Chicago Cubs vs (6) Milwaukee Brewers
- NLWC: (4) Philadelphia Phillies vs (5) San Diego Padres
- ALWC: (3) Detroit Tigers vs (6) New York Yankees
- ALWC: (4) Toronto Blue Jays vs (5) Baltimore Orioles
Divisional Series:
- NLDS: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (4) Philadelphia Phillies
- NLDS: (2) New York Mets vs (3) Chicago Cubs
- ALDS: (1) Seattle Mariners vs (5) Baltimore Orioles
- ALDS: (2) Boston Red Sox vs (3) Detroit Tigers
Championship Series:
- NLCS: (1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (2) New York Mets
- ALCS: (1) Seattle Mariners vs (3) Detroit Tigers
World Series:
- (NL-2) New York Mets vs (AL-3) Detroit Tigers
- CHAMPIONS: NEW YORK METS
Postseason Quick Notes:
- Wow, the American League is loaded. Outside of the Dodgers and the Mets, the National League just feels like it is lacking the depth and strength of its American League counterparts.
- While I love this Red Sox team, I think they might be a year away. They run into the Tigers, who are all-in now with Tarik Skubal, and I think the Tigers just have a bit too much for them.
- There is just too much pressure on this Mets team for them not to win. I went back and forth trying to decide which team I was going to pick, and I just kept going back to the Mets. The team is deep, on offense and on defense, the pitching staff is improved from last year, and they have the star power at the top to bring the World Series home to Queens.
- Even with the Mets winning instead of the Dodgers, fans will likely not be pleased. Like the Dodgers, the Mets are no stranger to spending, trailing only the Dodgers in payroll spending. As unfortunate as it is, I think this only fuels the fire for fans and owners wanting a salary cap.
- The 2022 Mets also have a case to be in this conversation after losing the division in the last week of the season, then going on to lose in the Wild Card Series at home as a 100-win team. ↩︎