This is second article of my newsletter series: “Let’s Talk About” with the first article being “Let’s Talk About Luis Arraez.” These articles will pop up anytime I feel there is something that has to be discussed as soon as it occurs.
So Let’s Talk About the Duke Blue Devils. Where to begin? We could begin with Duke’s 19 point lead late in the first half. Or, we could begin with a 15 point lead at halftime. We could even begin with Duke’s 11 point lead with 8 minutes left in the game. But, I want to start at the end.
Obviously blowing all of these leads is horrendous, but its March, and crazy comebacks happen all of the time. Throughout the entire second half, Duke could never quite put the Huskies away, allowing them to chip at their lead every so slowly until Connecticut cut the lead to 2 points with 3:22 remaining. But Duke being the juggernaut that they are (supposed to be), stretched the lead to 70-65 with just under two minutes remaining. Solo Ball made 1 of 2 free throws to make it 70-66 with 1:30 left. Here is error #1 for Duke at the end of this game. Probable Player of the Year, Cameron Boozer just loses control of the ball, Tarris Reed Jr of Connecticut recovers, and it leads an Alex Karaban three-pointer to cut the lead to 1 with 50 seconds left. Major credit goes to Karaban who seems like he never misses big shots. Boozer was able to settle in on the next possession and make a very difficult contested shot in the paint to extend the lead to three (72-69).
Duke then makes error #2. They foul Silas Demary Jr with ten seconds remaining. Now I know everyone always says to foul up three points, and that is true, but not with ten seconds remaining. Connecticut had no offensive movement, and Demary was attempting to drive in the paint to try to create something. Had Cameron Boozer moved his feet to stay with Demary, he would have forced an uncomfortable situation for the much shorter UConn guard. If Demary doesn’t score and Duke is able to get the rebound, the game is likely over. Teams should foul when up three points only in the last five seconds of the game. This puts the trailing team in a much more difficult position, with purposely missing the second free throw and getting the offseason rebound likely being their best option. Instead, Demary goes to the line. He makes the second of two free throws. The score is 72-70 with 10 seconds left. To most everyone, it should feel like Duke just needs to dot the i’s and cross the t’s. But Duke does the unthinkable: they turn the ball over. Error #3.
What makes this even more crazy is that Duke didn’t have a five-second call, or fumble the inbound, or get the ball stolen passing back to the inbounder like what most teams turning the ball over against the press do. Duke was able to get the ball to their point guard in the middle of the court. And instead of staying put and allowing them to foul him, Cayden Boozer tries to pass the ball over the top of the two players coming to trap him. The ball ricochets off of Silas Demary’s hands, Braylon Mullins recovers and kicks it ahead to Karaban who finds Mullins trailing the play wide open and he bangs home a 35-foot three-pointer with 0.3 seconds left to win it for Connecticut 73-72.
Let’s dissect these three mistakes. First, Cameron Boozer does not just “lose control” of the basketball often. He averages 2.5 turnovers per game, and a 14.6% Turnover Rate. Both are impressive numbers for players who has such a high usage rate. Secondly, the Boozer foul on Demary with 10 seconds left. Connecticut was completely and uncharacteristically lost offensively. They had no motion, and all of their players were standing still outside the three point line. Demary was trying to take on Boozer and the Duke defense by himself. At that point in the possession, I probably would not have fouled at all. And finally, the biggest mistakes of all: Cayden Boozer’s turnover. I understand what Cayden was trying to do, if he is able to successfully complete that pass, there’s a chance that time runs out completely, or Duke gets an easy dunk to take a four point lead with less than three seconds remaining. However, you can not take that chance only up two points with less than ten seconds remaining. Simply let Connecticut foul, make at least one of two free throws, and Duke can’t lose in regulation. If Cayden can make both free throws, he’s an 81% free throw shooter, then Duke goes up 74-70, and then the game is over.
Now I should be fair, both of the Boozer Twins have been exceptional all year long. Especially in the tournament. But, possibly for the first time all year, they showed their inexperience tonight on the biggest stage in the final moments. Cameron with the first turnover and the foul, and Cayden with the second turnover. As I said earlier, both are great players, and Cameron is certainly a top 5 pick in next year’s NBA Draft. Duke would not have gotten to this point of the tournament without them. It was an unfortunate end to the season for the Blue Devils who were the clear #1 team for most of this season. It was also an unfortunate result for most of my models, which you can check out on the 2026 March Madness page.
One final note: Dan Hurley is an incredible coach, and he made a genius decision by not fouling immediately. He trusted his press defense to force a turnover, and they rewarded him. Braylon Mullins, a freshman himself, hit the biggest shot of his life to send Duke home. And credit again goes to Alex Karaban who gets the final assist, and unselfishly trusted the fate of the season to the freshman Mullins.
To subscribe to the Let’s Talk About Newsletter, enter your email below!
Leave a Reply